World wheat production in 1995 was estimated
at 541 million metric tons, up 2.6% from 1994 levels, but still well below the
record harvest of 1990 or the harvests of 1992 and 1993. In 1995, wheat
production continued to expand in South Asia. In China, production rose 3% from
the previous year. In Australia, production recovered dramatically from the 1994
drought.
Wheat imports from the U.S. equal 3.1 million metric tons. The market is known
for its demand for exceptionally high quality in the wheat it uses. By class,
Japan is a large user of hard red spring as well as a major user of hard red,
winter and soft white wheat.
Japan was the leading importer of U.S. wheat
in the marketing year just ended, followed by Egypt, Pakistan, the Philippines
and Korea rounding out the top five.
The Japanese market has been
an extremely quality attentive and steady buyer of U.S. spring wheat for over 40
years. The milling and baking industries are highly sophisticated and fully
automated, including a modern baking plant that produces 600 to 700 different
items daily utilizing over 30 blends of flour, which must meet strict quality
and grade standards. For this reason, significant levels of cleanliness and
uniformity of spring wheat are demanded by the Japanese millers.
But wheat is different. Forty-eight percent of all U.S. wheat is exported,
compared to 20 percent for corn and 8 percent for soybeans. And nearly half of
all wheat exports go to countries, such as Japan and European nations, that
have a real sensitivity about GMOs. To lose foreign customers would be an
economic disaster to the U.S. wheat industry.
The process of breeding wheat is difficult. A
wheat breeder makes crosses of promising parental plants and observes the
progeny for agronomic traits (disease resistance, yield, plant type, etc.).
Agronomically promising lines are submitted to the Western Wheat Quality Lab (WWQL)
for quality analysis. Only a few wheat lines are ever commercially produced. Out
of every 1000 samples a wheat breeder submits to the WWQL, only 1 will ever be
grown in large quantity. Why is this? Because most wheats do not perform well in
milling and baking. A wheat has to mill well (produce a high percentage of
flour) and bake well (have good mixing and handling properties so bakers can
process it) and have good consumer acceptance (flat loaves and crunchy cakes are
not well liked).
The dominant class in U.S. exports and the
largest class produced each year. Produced in the Great Plains states, a large
interior area extending from the Mississippi River west to the Rocky Mountains
and from Canada to Mexico. Wide range of protein content, good milling and
baking characteristics. Used to produce bread, rolls and, to a lesser extent,
sweet goods and all-purpose flour. Major foreign buyers include Russia, China,
Japan, Morocco and Poland.
Part 2
The Current World Wheat
Situation Paul W. Heisey, Pedro Aquino, Victor Hernández, and
Elizabeth Rice
Production
World wheat production in 1995 was estimated at 541 million metric tons, up
2.6% from 1994 levels, but still well below the record harvest of 1990 or
the harvests of 1992 and 1993. In 1995, wheat production continued to expand
in South Asia. In China, production rose 3% from the previous year. In
Australia, production recovered dramatically from the 1994 drought.
In developing countries, the 1995 wheat harvest was the
second highest on record, marginally below the 1993 total. Over the past
five years, developing countries have produced 45% and more of the world's
wheat, compared with about 30% in the 1950s and 1960s. In contrast, wheat
production in the transitional economies of the former Soviet Union fell
sharply in 1994 and 1995 to levels not seen since the late 1960s (with the
exception of a bad harvest in 1975).
Wheat output in Eastern Europe was actually above average in 1994 and 1995,
but not enough to offset the large reduction in the former Soviet Union.
Though wheat production in high-income countries grew steadily from the
1950s through the mid-1980s, the share of wheat output produced in
high-income countries has fallen slowly over time, from about 45% in the
early 1950s to about 35% recently. For the past decade and more, changes in
policies such as land idling requirements and export subsidies have played a
particularly strong role in determining wheat production in many high-income
countries (Figure 1).
Area fluctuations in high-income wheat producers still influence world wheat
output, and there may be potential in the future to restore some area to
wheat production in the transitional economies, where it has declined over
the last 30 years. But for the world as a whole, expansion of wheat area has
not been a major source of greater wheat output for many years. In
developing countries, wheat area expansion was lower in the last decade than
at any time since the late 1950s and early 1960s (Figure 2). Yield increases
remain the major component of increased wheat production in both developing
and high-income countries, but in both groups, rates of yield increase from
1986 to 1995 (1.8 and 1.5% per annum, respectively) were lower than in the
previous two decades. Wheat yields in developing countries have been higher
than wheat yields in the transitional economies for most years since the
early 1980s and are now nearly 80% of the average yields for all high-income
countries. In the transitional economies, yields as well as areas have
declined over the past 20 years.
Trade
Published sources present varying estimates of the volume of international
wheat trade. These differences stem from at least three causes. First is the
issue of which transactions constitute international trade. All countries
are included in the basic Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) data
series that we use for our historical data on wheat trade. On the other
hand, in its periodical publications such as Food Outlook, the FAO
excludes from consideration trade within the European Union (EU) and within
the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) of the former Soviet Union. The
International Grains Council (IGC) also excludes from consideration EU and
CIS inter-trade. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) excludes
EU inter-trade but includes trade within the CIS in periodical reports such
as Grain: World Markets and Trade. Second, different sources may use
differing time units, such as marketing years, international years, or
calendar years for reporting trade figures. Third, basic data obtained by
the various institutions estimating world wheat trade may vary.
Based on an "all country" convention, the total volume of wheat traded
internationally in 1995 was approximately 108 million metric tons, little
changed from the 1994 total and lower than the amounts traded from 1991
through 1993. If EU and CIS intertrade is excluded, international wheat
trade in most recent years has been about 93 or 94 million metric tons.
Despite the rapid increase in wheat production in the developing world over
the past 30 years, developing countries now account for two-thirds of all
wheat imports based on the "all country" convention, up from less than half
in 1961. China, the world's largest wheat producer, is also the world's
largest wheat importer. Since 1980, Chinese net imports have averaged over
10 million metric tons annually, or (very roughly) 10% of annual
requirements. Another large importer in East Asia is South Korea, where per
capita wheat consumption is relatively high and where there is almost no
local production. A number of countries in North Africa, West Asia, and
South Asia produce wheat but also have very high per capita wheat
consumption. Among the developing world's largest importers in recent years,
these countries include Egypt, Algeria, Iran, Morocco, Pakistan, and Yemen.
Other large developing country importers include Brazil (which produces
wheat) and Indonesia and the Philippines, (which do not).
From the early 1970s through its breakup, the Soviet Union was, in many
years, the world's largest wheat importer. In the first few years of the
post-Soviet era, imports into that region remained high. They fell sharply,
however, in 1993 and to even lower levels in 1994 and 1995. Since 1994, the
transitional economies, including Eastern Europe, have accounted for only
about 5% of total world wheat imports. Depending on production conditions,
Kazakhstan has been a net exporter in some recent years, shipping as much as
5 million metric tons or more to other CIS countries.
From the early 1960s through the late 1980s, wheat imports by high-income
countries remained roughly constant at about 20 million metric tons per
year. In high-income countries, wheat imports appear to have increased
somewhat in the first half of the 1990s. At the beginning of the 1960s, the
largest net wheat importers among high-income countries were the United
Kingdom, Germany, and Japan.1
Wheat imports in Japan rose steadily until the mid-1970s and have remained
relatively constant ever since, although Japan is still the leading wheat
importer among high-income countries. As a result of expanding wheat
production, the United Kingdom and Germany have become net exporters, the
United Kingdom in the early 1980s and Germany in the late 1980s. Wheat
imports into Italy have risen since the mid-1970s, and today Italy is the
second largest net importer among high-income countries. Italy's imports
appear to come, for the most part, from other EU trading partners.
Between 1961-1965 and 1991-1995, the major shift in the pattern of wheat
exports has been the rise in the share of those exports from the EU, at the
expense of the other traditional exporters: the U.S., Canada, Australia, and
Argentinabut particularly the U.S. 2 Nonetheless, the
U.S. has remained the world's leading wheat exporter, with a market share of
over one-third in the 1994/95 and 1995/96 marketing seasons. Wheat exports
from the U.S. remained high in 1995/96 despite lower U.S. production in
1995, as a result of high world prices and the nation's desire to retain a
reputation as a reliable exporter. On the other hand, the EU's share of
exports to the rest of the world, which had been above 20% in the late 1980s
and early 1990s, fell to 17% in 1994/95 and further to 14% in 1995/96.
Internal use of EU wheat has risen in the past several years as Common
Agricultural Policy (CAP) reform has lowered support prices. Canada's share
of the export market has held steady at just over 20%. Australia's share
fell in 1994/95 and rose in 1995/96; Argentina's followed the reverse
pattern. In both cases these fluctuations in wheat exports reflected
fluctuations in wheat production in these countries.
World wheat consumption from 1990 through 1995 has fluctuated in a fairly
narrow band between 547 and 556 million metric tons, with the exception of
1993, when consumption was estimated at 566 million metric tons. The FAO
estimates wheat consumption was 547 million metric tons in 1994. IGC and
USDA estimates place 1995 consumption variously between 547 and 552 million
metric tons.
Wheat consumption worldwide has grown rapidly in the past 35 years. Rapid
growth in both production and imports by developing countries has meant that
consumption growth has been particularly fast in these countries (Table 1).
Over much of this period, the rate of growth in wheat consumption in
developing countries has been slightly higher than the rate of growth in
maize utilization and over half again as high as the rate of growth in rice
consumption. Growing populations, rising incomes, and lower prices have all
played a role in increasing consumption of wheat in the developing world.
Wheat consumption in developing countries has grown at a considerably higher
rate than the population of those countries, suggesting the importance of
income and price factors. The growth of wheat consumption in developing
countries appears to have decelerated somewhat in the 1980s and 1990s (Table
1).
Table 1. Growth in world utilization of wheat,
1961-1994
Growth in utilization (% per
annum)
Developing
Transitional
High-income
Period
countries
economies
countries
World
1961-1970
4.9
5.5
2.0
4.2
1971-1980
5.1
2.5
0.4
3.1
1981-1990
3.1
1.5
1.4
2.3
1991-1994
1.3
-7.0
3.2
-0.1
1961-1994
4.4
1.6
1.4
2.8
Growth in per capita
utilization, 1961-1994
2.2
0.8
0.6
1.0
Source: Calculated from FAO Agrostat
data.
In many high-income countries, food wheat markets are
mature, with changes in consumption taking place slowly over time, driven by
population growth and slowly changing dietary preferences. In these
countries, shorter-term and more rapid shifts in total utilization are often
associated with shifts in feed use, which in turn are driven by changes in
the ratio of the price of wheat to the price of coarse grains that are more
commonly used as feed. This phenomenon appears to be a major reason for
higher total consumption in high-income countries in the last few years,
particularly in some European Union nations.
In the transitional economies, especially in the states of the former Soviet
Union, wheat production has declined over the past 20 years, and imports
have collapsed in the 1990s. Wheat stocks have been drawn down in these
countries, but consumption has been down dramatically since 1993 for the
entire region (see Table 1). In fact, consumption fell most dramatically
between 1991 and 1992 in Eastern Europe and is now increasing slowly there;
the more recent sharp declines in wheat use in the transitional economies is
attributable solely to the countries of the former Soviet Union. Use of
wheat as livestock feed was a prominent feature of consumption in most of
the transitional economies; sharp reductions in feed use have nearly always
been the major component of sharp reductions in total use.
Stocks and prices
World wheat production in 1994 was considerably below consumption levels,
partially due to reduced production in North America, China, and Turkey, as
well as to drought in Australia and some countries in North Africa. As noted
above, production in 1995 recovered somewhat, but not to the levels of the
early 1990s, while consumption held steady. As a result, world wheat stocks
were drawn down in 1994 and again in 1995. In 1994, the ratio of closing
stocks to consumption was at the lowest level since 1972, and in 1995 that
record was broken, bringing the stocks-to-use ratio to the lowest level in
the postwar period (Figure 3).
Figure 3 shows that the overall trend for the wheat stocks-to-use ratio over
time has been negative for at least 35 years. This suggests that, over time,
greater efficiencies in the marketing channel may have reduced the need for
larger stockholdings. Nonetheless, the FAO considers the current levels of
world grain stocks in general (stocks of other cereals have also fallen
markedly) as being below the minimum levels necessary to cope with an
emergency.
Concomitant with the tight world wheat market, nominal export prices for
U.S. No. 2 hard red winter wheat, f.o.b. Gulf ports (the world reference
standard), reached an all-time high over the 1995/96 marketing season. The
highest prices were recorded in May 1996; since then they have fallen back
somewhat. The real export price of wheat, however, remains below the levels
of the 1960s, 1970s, and early 1980s (Figure 4). Nonetheless, in 1995/96,
the real price moved above the trend line for the last 35 years, reaching
its highest level since 1988/89.
As this publication has noted in the past, the reference world export price
frequently overstates the actual prices at which wheat is traded on world
markets because of the export promotion policies of some major exporters.
However, because of tight world wheat supplies and increasing prices, the EU
ended its export subsidies in 1995. When domestic prices remained high, the
EU even introduced an export tax. Furthermore, in 1995 the EU Common
Agricultural Policy mandatory area set-aside was reduced from 15 to 12%. The
last U.S. wheat sale under the Export Enhancement Program was made to Egypt
in July 1995. 4
The short-term outlook
High prices have induced acreage expansion in many countries, including many
traditional importers. World wheat production for 1996 is now forecast
variously at between 563 and 580 million metric tons, up 4 to 7% over 1995.
The latter forecast would imply the second largest world harvest on record.
Wheat output is expected to increase particularly in China (which may
harvest a record crop), the European Union, Argentina, North Africa, Russia,
and Kazakhstan. Production is also forecast to increase over 1995 in
Australia and in the U.S. The increase in total U.S. wheat production may
only be about 3%, because drought affected the output insome of the southern
Great Plains states that produce hard red winter wheat. This was one of the
factors behind the increase in world wheat prices in early 1996. Production
for 1996 is also expected to be good in Turkey and Pakistan. The Indian
harvest is forecast to be reduced slightly from 1995, but is still predicted
to be the second highest on record. Wheat output in 1996 in Eastern Europe
and the Ukraine will be reduced from 1995 levels.
As the 1996 wheat harvest began, prices fell. In August 1996,the export
price for U.S. No. 2 hard red winter wheat averaged US$ 192 per ton in
current dollars, over 25% below the May record. World imports for 1996/97
are now expected to be some 4 million metric tons below 1995/96, in large
part because of reduced imports forecast for China. Consumption is also
expected to be up, and world closing stocks are predicted to rise modestly,
by about 3 million tons, which will leave the stocks-to-use ratio still low
in historical terms (Figure 3).
The fall in the world wheat price in mid-1996 led the EU to approve a small
subsidy in August 1996 for the sale of 20,000 tons of wheat to the African,
Caribbean, and Pacific countries. This export restitution was the first EU
export subsidy in 15 months.
Wheat in the longer run
Models of the world food economy which attempt to predict future world
supply and demand relationships often contain forecasts concerning the wheat
sub-sector. They differ in complexity (e.g., degree to which they are based
on simple trend extrapolation, the degree to which they take into account
supply and demand considerations, and their assumptions regarding trade).
Most of the models share certain unstated but implicit assumptions. For
example, the assumption that wheat yields will continue to rise along
historical trends may imply that research investments in wheat technology
will continue at current levels; or that research investments will fall but
become more efficient; or, at the extreme, that investments in research will
have no effect on wheat productivity.
The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has examined some
of these assumptions in their 2020 Vision for Food, Agriculture, and the
Environment. Rosegrant, Agcaoili-Sombilla, and Perez (1995) construct a
set of 35 country or regional models that determine supply, demand, and
prices for 17 agricultural commodities, including wheat. They develop five
alternative scenarios. Here, we examine the results for wheat in two
scenarios. The "baseline scenario" uses the authors' "best assessments" of
future directions for population and income growth, urbanization,
technological change and productivity growth in food production, prices, and
the responses of supply and demand to prices. In particular, the authors
assume that rates of public investment in agricultural research and
infrastructure will remain at the reduced levels prevailing in the late
1980s and early 1990s and that income growth rates in developing countries
will remain high, although varying by region. In the
"low-investment/slow-growth scenario," the authors assume that international
and national agricultural research investments will be cut even farther, by
an annual total of about US$ 1.5 billion; that non-agricultural income
growth will be reduced by 25%, thus lowering the demand for agricultural
commodities; and that investment in health, education, and sanitation will
be reduced by 20% by 2020.
In the baseline scenario, world wheat production would grow to 841 million
metric tons by 2020, up over 50% from current levels. Production in
developing countries would grow at a rate of 2.2% annually, down somewhat
from historical trends. Wheat output in developing countries would reach 432
million metric tons by 2020, a 70% increase over current developing country
wheat production, and over half the world total in 2020. Developing
countries would continue to import 122 million metric tons of wheatprimarily
into Asia and West Asia/North Africa and wheat consumption by the developing
world would be nearly two-thirds of the world total. The international price
of wheat is forecaxñ at US$ 132 per metric ton in 1990 dollars, slightly
under the trend price prevailing in recent years, but 50% higher than the
price would be in 2020 were the price trend of the past 30 years to persist
for the next 30 years (Table 2).
Table 2. Projected wheat data in 2020, baseline and
low investment/slow growth scenarios
Baseline
Low investment/slow
scenario
growth scenario
Growth rates in wheat production
(% per annum)
Asia
2.0
1.5
Latin America/Caribbean
1.9
1.6
Sub-Saharan Africa
3.3
2.9
West Asia/North Africa
2.7
2.3
All developing countries
2.2
1.7
High-income/transitional
1.0
1.0
World
1.5
1.3
Total wheat production in 2020
(million metric tons)
Asia
286.7
250.0
Latin America/Caribbean
39.3
35.3
Sub-Saharan Africa
4.5
4.0
West Asia/North Africa
101.2
88.4
All developing countries
431.7
377.7
High-income/transitional
409.0
415.5
World
840.7
793.2
Developing countries' share of
world wheat production
(%)
51.4
47.6
Developing countries' share of
world wheat consumption
(%)
65.9
65.2
Total wheat imports in 2020 by
developing countries
(million metric tons)
Asia
64.5
80.5
Latin America/Caribbean
3.6
4.3
Sub-Saharan Africa
12.5
11.6
West Asia/North Africa
41.6
42.7
All developing countries
122.1
139.1
Price of wheat
(1990 US$/metric ton)
132
166
Source: Rosegrant, Agcaoili-Sombilla, and Perez (1995).
In the low-investment/slow-growth scenario, IFPRI estimates that world wheat
production in 2020 would be 793 million metric tons, 6% under the total in
the baseline scenario. Production in developing countries is predicted to
grow at the lower rate of 1.7% annually, and would only be 378 million tons,
13% lower than in the baseline scenario. In the low-investment/slow-growth
scenario, wheat production in high-income and transitional economies would
be slightly higher than predicted in the baseline scenario, as
farmers in these countries would respond to higher world prices by producing
more wheat. Despite higher prices, developing countries would import 139
million metric tons of wheat, 14% more than in the baseline forecast. Most
of these added imports would go into Asia, where incomes will be high enough
to finance wheat purchases, despite lower income growth for developing
countries in general. The international price of wheat is forecast at US$
166 per metric ton in 1990 dollars, 25% over the price in the baseline
scenario.
In the low-investment/slow-growth scenario, developing nations would suffer
an annual welfare loss of nearly US$ 7 billion (1990 dollars) in 2020
compared to the baseline forecast; this loss would occur in the wheat
sub-sector alone and would be the result of both higher prices and larger
imports. When one considers all commodities, food security (as measured by
the predicted number of malnourished children) is only marginally improved
by 2020even in the baseline scenario. In the low-investment/slow-growth
scenario it is predicted to be considerably worse than it is today. Both
scenarios predict that food security will continue to be a problem in South
Asia, where wheat is a major consumption item of the poor, and in
sub-Saharan Africa, where it is less important (Rosegrant, Agcaoili-Sombilla,
and Perez 1995).
1 In 1961, Japan would
probably have been classified as an "upper middle income" country. 2 In this paragraph, we
are deliberately excluding inter-European Union wheat trade from
consideration. Trade among the European Union countries also appears to have
expanded over the past 30 years, both as a result of increased production
and expansion of membership. 3 Wheat utilization or
consumption is defined to include food, feed, seed, and processed uses, as
well as waste. 4 Egypt continued to
purchase U.S. wheat on commercial terms.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of US$3.2 trillion, making the third largest
economy in the world.
Per Capita GDP of US$23,400.
Landmass slightly less than that of California.
During the past decade, Japan’s economy has been in a period of recession or
economic stagnation. Japan’s economy continues to be very sluggish with a
relatively small projected GDP growth rate.
General Characteristics of Market and
Culture
Agriculture equals 2 percent of the nation’s GDP or US$64 billion.
Poultry production equals 1.2 million metric tons annually.
Pork production equals 1.3 million metric tons annually.
Eleven percent of the landmass is arable.
Soybean imports from the U.S. equal 3.6 million metric tons. Food soybeans
are used for tofu, miso, natto, and other food uses such as boiled
soybeans and soy sauce. IP soybeans include organic and non-organic food
grade soybeans, variety-specific soybeans, IOM soybeans, and other premium
grade soybeans. Soybean meal is used for feed, industrial purposes, and
food products such as soy protein and soy sauce.
Corn imports from the U.S. equal 14.8 million metric tons. Corn is the
major ingredient used in compound and mixed feed production. Approximately
44 percent of the corn used for feed is used for the poultry industry.
Total production of feed is forecasted to decline due to decreased
livestock production.
Wheat imports from the U.S. equal 3.1 million metric tons. The market is
known for its demand for exceptionally high quality in the wheat it uses.
By class, Japan is a large user of hard red spring as well as a major user
of hard red, winter and soft white wheat.
Food Self-Sufficiency Policy
Japan currently imports over 60 percent of its food
requirements. The government has set a food self-sufficiency target of 45
percent by 2010. However, there is a trend toward increased imports due to
decreases in domestic production and rapidly evolving dietary habits that
continue to drive imports upwards. Japanese agricultural imports have been
increasing five times more rapidly than the nation’s GDP. Agricultural
production is steadily contracting.
IP Crops
Japan has been a traditional market for
IP crops.
Japan is the world’s largest importer of IP food
grade soybeans with a use of 1.0 million metric tons annually.
The U.S. is the largest import supplier of IP food
grade and organic product to the market.
Japan has an organic food market valued at US$4
billion annually, which has been growing at annual rate of over 20
percent.
Trends
Japanese consumers are becoming more value conscious
and focusing more on “Kirei” (clean), “Kenko” (healthy), and “Kodawari”
(good value) foods. Accountability and traceability are becoming a
requirement for food inputs. The demand for organic or natural foods is
growing due to consumer concerns about environment, health, and nutrition.
The above is a summary of the market profile.
View the Detailed Japan Market Profile Here. html |
pdf
Japan was the leading importer of U.S. wheat in the
marketing year just ended, followed by Egypt, Pakistan, the Philippines and
Korea rounding out the top five.
As the top buyer, Japan imported 3.26 million metric tons,
or 119.9 million bushels of wheat. The country has been a leading buyer of U.S.
wheat for many years, ranking as the leading or second leading buyer of the crop
in each of the past five marketing years.
The U.S. exported approximately 29.92 MMT - that's 989.04
million bushels - during the recently ending marketing year, which compares to
33.98 MMT during the same period in 1995-1996. The figures include commercial
export sales as well as government concessionary sales and donations.
Competition from other exporters such as Australia,
Argentina and the European Union, which produced record crops last year, as well
as from Canada, contributed to the drop in sales from the U.S. Subsidy use by
some of those countries also contributed to decreased U.S. sales.
China and Egypt, both of which often lead in wheat imports,
also saw decreased sales during the marketing year, said Matt Weimar, U.S. Wheat
Associates regional vice president for China.
Hard red spring was the leading wheat class exported, with
sales totaling 7.86 MMT. The top three importers were the Philippines and Korea.
Mexico, Japan and Egypt were the top three buyers of hard
red winter wheat, which is grown across the High Plains of Texas. The total
sales for that class was 7.39 MMT.
Other exports included white at 6.11 MMT, soft red winter
at 3.64 MMT and durum at 963,100 MMT.
Official from Top Spring Wheat Export Market to Visit N.D. June
10, 2002 6/7/2002
A representative of the
Japanese Food Agency will be in North Dakota on Monday, June 10,
for a day of marketing discussions coordinated by the North
Dakota Wheat Commission. Japan is repeatedly the top export
market for U.S. hard red spring wheat, purchasing nearly 50
million bushels each year.
The Food Agency, a government purchasing group, controls
approximately 90 percent of the wheat imported in Japan. In
recent years, the Food Agency has continually tightened its
quality standards on wheat imports. On May 28, the Food Agency
added another strict specification on the presence of a
mold-producing toxin, deoxynivalenol (DON), which is caused by
Fusarium head blight, commonly called wheat scab.
This new stipulation mandates a DON level of less than 1.1 parts
per million in Japanese wheat purchases. The U.S. Food and Drug
Administration indicates DON is not a public health hazard at
the advisory level of 1 ppm in finished wheat products.
Processing wheat into flour greatly reduces the amount of DON
present. Therefore, most importers require a 2 ppm limit in
their wheat purchases, however Japan has not had a maximum DON
standard in the past.
"Japan imports the majority of its food," explains NDWC
Marketing Specialist Leland "Judge" Barth. "Japanese consumers
have very quality conscious standards." The Food Agency is
requesting information on the implications of tightening their
purchase specifications. Additionally, the Food Agency official
is interested in the current spring wheat crop conditions and
the outlook on the quality of the 2002 crop.
The Japanese market has
been an extremely quality attentive and steady buyer of U.S.
spring wheat for over 40 years. The milling and baking
industries are highly sophisticated and fully automated,
including a modern baking plant that produces 600 to 700
different items daily utilizing over 30 blends of flour, which
must meet strict quality and grade standards. For this reason,
significant levels of cleanliness and uniformity of spring wheat
are demanded by the Japanese millers.
The Food Agency representative and Wheat Commission hosts will
visit the Sun Prairie Grain elevator in Minot followed by a
visit to the Coleharbor area farm of Don and Jean Paulson. Don
is the south central district commissioner for the NDWC. The
group will then proceed to Bismarck for an overview with North
Dakota State University and Northern Crops Institute
representatives regarding the end-use quality of hard red spring
wheat, impacts of scab disease, and crop production and grain
handling techniques that can minimize its effects.
They'll also hear about research progress at NDSU in developing
varieties resistant to scab. In 2000, NDSU released Alsen, its
first hard red spring wheat variety that is resistant to scab.
The NDWC expects Alsen to be the leading variety planted in
North Dakota in 2002.
This visit by a Food Agency official is an important element of
the marketing promotion of U.S. Wheat Associates, the export
market development arm for American wheat producers.
Written by: Jessica Barenthsen, NDWC Communication/Marketing
Intern
"Wheat industry is cautious on biotech
introduction"
Bill Hord
World-Herald via AgriBiz.Com
May 29, 2001
The word is out in the food industry - don't mess up when
it comes to wheat. Wheat is the world's favorite crop. It is bread, pasta, apple
pie crust, cookies and pastry. Be careful.
The U.S. wheat industry began waving the caution flag more than a year ago as
some consumers around the world rebelled against food that contains genetically
manipulated soybeans or corn.
Now even Monsanto Inc., a company that is a leader in inserting new genes in
plants, has gotten the word about wheat.
"We are breaking new ground, and we have to proceed carefully," said Mark
Buckingham, a Monsanto spokesman at the company's headquarters in St. Louis.
Monsanto introduced the first GMO (genetically modified organism) for a major
U.S. crop - soybeans - in 1996. Now, nearly two-thirds of the U.S. soybean crop
is made up of GMOs, up from 54 percent last year.
But wheat is different. Forty-eight percent of all U.S.
wheat is exported, compared to 20 percent for corn and 8 percent for soybeans.
And nearly half of all wheat exports go to countries, such as Japan and European
nations, that have a real sensitivity about GMOs. To lose foreign customers
would be an economic disaster to the U.S. wheat industry.
The concern is so great that the state legislature of North Dakota considered
a proposal in recent months to put a moratorium on the growing of GMO wheat. In
the end, the legislation was amended to require a study of the issue instead.
Monsanto is expected to announce next week the formation of a wheat- industry
committee to advise it on how and when to put wheat genetics on the market,
including the current front-runner - Roundup Ready wheat.
As it does in corn and soybeans, the Roundup Ready gene would allow farmers
to use the company's potent Roundup herbicide to kill weeds without affecting
the wheat plant. Monsanto expects to have the new plant ready for farmers by
2005 and possibly as early as 2003.
Many farmers would welcome a wheat plant that would allow them to use weed
killers or would ward off wheat diseases.
"It would make my life a lot easier," said Dan Hughes, a Grant, Neb., farmer.
"But it doesn't do me any good if I can't sell the wheat."
Wheat is Nebraska's third largest crop behind corn and soybeans, with most of
the state's wheat production coming from the drier regions of the south and
southwest. In 1999, the state's farmers exported $119 million worth of their
$186 million wheat crop to foreign markets. Kansas was the nation's leader with
$805 million worth of wheat exports.
Very little wheat is grown in Iowa, where higher annual rainfalls favor corn
and soybeans, two crops that do not do as well as wheat in drier climates.
Even as the industry frets about stability in wheat markets, researchers all
over the country are testing plots.
The University of Nebraska-Lincoln is testing GMO wheat designed to resist
diseases, increase seed size and improve protein or starch quality.
"I truly believe transgenic wheat will be sold in the future," said Steve
Baenziger, a wheat breeder at UNL.
Tom Clemente, manager of plant genetics research at UNL's Beadle Center,
said, "These products (being tested at UNL) wouldn't be in growers' hands for
years to come."
Monsanto's Buckingham said researchers are also testing wheat plants that
would improve the quality of frozen dough or make it possible for people with a
physical intolerance for wheat gluten to eat wheat products.
"There is a lot of potential down the road for very direct consumer
benefits," Buckingham said.
Wheat industry leaders say they have learned their lesson from StarLink, the
cuss word in plant genetics circles.
"I hate to even mention the word," said Darrell Hanavan, chairman of a joint
wheat-industry committee on biotechnology and executive director of the Colorado
Wheat Administrative Committee.
StarLink was a corn plant genetically designed to release a protein that
would kill corn borers. Although it was approved only as a livestock feed
pending further study of whether it would aggravate allergies, the corn found
its way into taco shells.
The result was upheaval in the grain markets, including rejection of some
U.S. corn shipments by Japan. There is now universal agreement in the food
industry that no new seed should be sold until it has full government approval
for human consumption.
Last month, Japan informed Hanavan and a team of U.S. wheat industry leaders
that it would take its business elsewhere if U.S. farmers begin growing GMO
wheat.
"Essentially, they said that at this point in time there is no consumer
acceptance of biotech products," Hanavan said.
In an unprecedented concession, Monsanto has committed to withholding GMO
wheat from the market until Japan gives its approval.
Wheat industry leaders have determined that two other things are needed
before GMO wheat seeds should be sold to farmers, both of which are lessons
learned from StarLink.
First, says Hanavan, the world needs to agree on a tolerance standard.
StarLink's problems were multiplied because the standard was zero tolerance,
meaning that a trace of StarLink was enough to have it turned away from food use
even though a trace was hardly considered problematic by scientists.
Second, wheat growers want a reliable system for keeping GMO wheat separated
from conventional wheat. No such system existed when the Environmental
Protection Agency decided StarLink could be grown for livestock feed but not for
human food.
Hanavan said wheat industry organizations want to make progress toward a day
when biotech wheat can have a place in the food chain without jeopardizing wheat
sales around the world.
"Our whole policy position is based on the premise that we support
biotechnology," Hanavan said. "It holds great promise for the future, but our
concern is with market acceptance."
** NOTICE: In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is
distributed for research and educational purposes only. **
U.S. Department of Agriculture- Agricultural Research Service Western Wheat Quality Lab
The western United States is one of the world's major wheat growing regions. California, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Utah, Washington and, to a lesser extent, Arizona, produce considerable amounts of all classes of wheat. The wheat is milled and used for the production of bread, cookies, cakes, pie crusts, confections, donuts, specialty breads (pita, chapati) and various oriental style noodles. In the Pacific Northwest states (ID, OR and WA), up to 80% of the wheat grown is exported to countries in the Pacific rim (Japan, Korea, Philippines, Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand) or the Middle East (India, Oman, Pakistan, Yemen, etc.). For Washington state alone, the economic impact of wheat production is consistently over 1 billion dollars per year.
The process of breeding wheat is difficult.
A wheat breeder makes crosses of promising parental plants and observes the
progeny for agronomic traits (disease resistance, yield, plant type, etc.).
Agronomically promising lines are submitted to the Western Wheat Quality Lab (WWQL)
for quality analysis. Only a few wheat lines are ever commercially produced. Out
of every 1000 samples a wheat breeder submits to the WWQL, only 1 will ever be
grown in large quantity. Why is this? Because most wheats do not perform well in
milling and baking. A wheat has to mill well (produce a high percentage of
flour) and bake well (have good mixing and handling properties so bakers can
process it) and have good consumer acceptance (flat loaves and crunchy cakes are
not well liked).
The WWQL was established in 1946 to assist wheat breeders
by evaluating the end- use quality of potential wheat varieties. The three
original missions of the WWQL have remained the same since the lab's inception:
1) To assist breeders in producing wheat of high end-use quality.
2) To conduct basic research into the biochemical and genetic basis of wheat quality and incorporate these results into the breeding program work.
3) To develop new and better means of assessing wheat quality.
Currently the lab screens about 8000 breeder samples per
year for milling and baking quality. In addition to its work with public wheat
breeders, the lab participates in international studies in cooperation with
the Wheat Commissions of Washington, Oregon, Idaho and California as well as
the Wheat Marketing Center in Portland, OR. The WWQL frequently hosts trade
team delegations from overseas. The WWQL also actively interacts with the WSU
Departments of Crop and Soil Sciences and Food Science in both education and
research.
For more information about the Western Wheat Quality Lab,
check out our WWW HomePage at Western
Wheat Quality Lab
Wheat has been around in it's various forms for many
thousand years. It's been found in the pyramids of Egypt and other burial
chambers in other parts of the world as well. During Roman times, huge
freighters sailed from Alexandria to all parts of the Mediterranean. After
the fall of the Roman Empire, ships of this size wouldn't be seen again for
over a thousand years. Wheat is mentioned throughout the Bible and has been
a food of man throughout recorded history.
There are three basic parts to a kernel of wheat:Bran, or outer covering, made up of
layers rich in many vitamins and minerals as well as high-quality
protein. Germ, or embryo, from which springs new
life. The wheat germ is one of the 8 richest known sources of B and E
vitamins and contains protein, fat and mineral matter. The germ and
bran contain organic phosphates, which provide brain and nerve food.
Calcium for bone and teeth is also supplied from these parts of the
kernel.
Endosperm, the inner part of the wheat
kernel, where cellulose, starch and gluten are abundant, but very
little vitamin and mineral substance is present. White flour is made
principally from the endosperm. In white flour, about one-half of the
fat is lost. The fat from a wheat kernel has a high food value, since
it also contains unsaturated fatty acids.
It is clear that consumption of the balanced,
complete kernel is necessary in order to receive the full value from
wheat, especially "trace elements" so essential to human nutrition. On
the trace elements there is still much to be learned.
Taken from Wheat For Man, Bookcraft,
SLC, UT page 5. copyright 1975 (Out of print)
Wheat for man - what makes this such a great food?
Looking at a nutritional analysis, wheat has much of what we need to keep
healthy, especially if it's been sprouted.
Wheat sprouts containing 2900 calories produce 100% of
the 50 essential nutrients except for the following which contain a RDA/DRV
of only...
A cup of spinach or some other dark green leafy
vegetable
2 1/2 tablespoons of flax seed
3 tablespoons of oil
A pinch of salt
...will fill all the deficiencies not found in wheat
and give you a diet that could keep you alive for a long, long time.
Naturally, you'd want a more varied diet than this if at all possible, but
this is just an example of what a great food wheat really is and why it's
often called 'the staff of life' and the core food for food storage.
Variability In
Protein
Content Of Wheat Within A Year
Source of Variation Range in Protein Content
(in percentage protein units)
Kernels within a head 6%
Heads from 1 plant 2%
Plants within one row (18 feet) 3%
Rows within one apparently uniform field 6%
Farms delivering to one elevator point 5%
Farms within a crop district 6%
Farms within a province (of Canada) 8%
Farms within Western Canada 11%
You can see from the above table that all wheat is
blended with wheat kernels of different protein levels. Individual
kernels within the same sample could have a protein difference of as
much as 10% from the other kernels around it. The protein level is the
average of all kernels within a given sample. Want to make a million
bucks??? Make a machine that will efficiently sort wheat by the protein
content of each kernel.
In the summer of 2000, Southern Alberta saw one of
it's driest years on record. Sadly, the farmers even started planting
with relatively dry ground. With little rain the ever drying earth was
soon parched. By harvest, they had only received about 1/2 inch of rain.
These pictures show a contrast between a field that had irrigation and
plenty of water compared to a drought stricken dry farm with no
irrigation. A little water makes all the difference in the world. The
field on the left was irrigated. The field on the right was 'dry
farmed.'
This photo shows a head of wheat from the irrigated field. It's
large and full, containing 35 kernels of wheat. Not only are there
more kernels in the irrigated heads but each plant can have up to 3
heads.
By contrast, this head of wheat comes from the drought stricken
field. Notice how much smaller it is. This head only contained 15
kernels of wheat. Each plant only produced one head and a few didn't
produce any.
The
wheat on the left came from the wheat head on the irrigated field. It's
kernels are high in protein and bulging with starch. Full of nutrition,
this is a great crop of wheat. By contrast, the kernels on the right
from the distressed head are small and shrunken. Drought stricken wheat
is usually very high in protein but the inferior kernels contain little
starch. Not even graded for human consumption, this wheat will be used
for animal feed.
Testing Wheat
Through various machines several
tests can be done on wheat to test it's quality. These tests include
moisture content, protein, germination, gluten content and various
fungicidal toxins. Most of these machines or meters are small in size and
are operated by dropping the wheat down through them. The machine that
measures gluten content operates a little differently and actually mixes
up a small amount of flour into a paste. They do it by taking a small
sample of wheat, grinding it up into flour, then taking 7gm of flour and
mixing it with 25ml of distilled water. It is vigorously shaken up to mix
the flour into the water then poured into a cylinder measuring about 7/8
inch in diameter by 18 inches high. Then the machine mixes the mixture and
heats it up to boiling. It takes about 55 seconds to do this. At this
point, a piston with calibrated holes drilled through it, slides down
through the cylinder to the bottom, forcing the mixture through the holes
in the piston. The longer it takes the piston to get to the bottom, the
more gluten in the sample. The time it takes the piston to 'fall' to the
bottom of the cylinder is called the 'falling number' and is measured in
seconds. In fact, that's what the test and machine is called - the wheat
'falling number' test. Falling numbers for wheat can range from about 200
to 500. Durum wheat and soft wheat have lower falling numbers because they
weren't designed to have high gluten content. The hard wheats, which were
designed to have high gluten content, have higher falling numbers. Wheat
for bread making have falling numbers starting at about 320. But really
good wheat has a falling number up higher towards 500.
It's not always relative, but protein content and
gluten content generally follow each other. So it's not generally
necessary to require a falling number test if you know what the protein
content is. Protein levels of 13% and above should make good bread.
The following information about the various
Classes of U.S. Wheat is from "The Wheat Grower", Sep-Oct 1994,
as sponsored by the Chicago Board of Grain.
There are 6 Basic U.S. Classes of Wheat
Wheat is the principal U.S. cereal grain for export
and domestic consumption. In terms of value, wheat is the fourth leading
U.S. field crop and our leading export crop.
Wheat has two distinct growing seasons. Winter
wheat, which normally accounts for 70 to 80 percent of U.S. production,
is sown in the fall and harvested in the spring or summer. Spring wheat
is planted in the spring and harvested in late summer or early fall.
There are SEVERAL HUNDRED VARIETIES of wheat
produced in the United States, all of which fall into one of six
recognized classes...
Where each class of wheat is grown depends largely
upon rainfall, temperature, soil conditions and tradition. Generally
speaking, wheat is more often grown in arid regions where soil quality
is poor.
Wheat classes are determined not only by the time
of year they are planted and harvested, but also by their hardness,
color and the shape of their kernels. Each class of wheat has its own
similar family characteristics, especially as related to milling and
baking or other food use.
Hard Red Winter Wheat
The dominant class in U.S. exports
and the largest class produced each year. Produced in the Great Plains
states, a large interior area extending from the Mississippi River west
to the Rocky Mountains and from Canada to Mexico. Wide range of protein
content, good milling and baking characteristics. Used to produce bread,
rolls and, to a lesser extent, sweet goods and all-purpose flour. Major
foreign buyers include Russia, China, Japan, Morocco and Poland.
Hard Red Spring Wheat
Contains the highest percentage of protein, making
it an excellent bread wheat with superior milling and baking
characteristics. Majority of crop is grown in Montana, North Dakota,
South Dakota and Minnesota. Exported largely to Central America, Japan,
the Philippines and Russia.
Soft Red Winter Wheat
Grown primarily east of the Mississippi River. High
yielding, but relatively low protein. Used for flat breads, cakes,
pastries, and crackers. Largest customers are China, Egypt and Morocco.
Durum Wheat
The hardest of all U.S. wheat and consistently the
class with the lowest export volume, accounting for less than 5 percent
of all U.S. wheat exports. Grown in the same northern states as Hard Red
Spring, although 70 to 80 percent of the U.S. annual production comes
from North Dakota. Used to make semolina flour for pasta production. The
largest importer is Algeria.
Hard White Wheat
The newest class of wheat to be grown in the United
States. Closely related to red wheats (except for color genes), this
wheat has a milder, sweeter flavor, equal fiber and similar milling and
baking properties. Used mainly in yeast breads, hard rolls, bulgur,
tortillas and oriental noodles. Used primarily in domestic markets,
although it is exported in limited quantities.
Soft White Wheat
Used in much the same way as Soft Red Winter (for
bakery products other than bread). Grown mainly in the Pacific Northwest
and to a lesser extent in California, Michigan, Wisconsin and New York.
Low protein, but high yielding. Produces flour for baking cakes,
crackers, cookies, pastries, quick breads, muffins and snack foods.
Exported to Far East Asian region.
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Quick
Facts
Wheat - Food For Man
The
wheat on the left came from the wheat head on the irrigated field. It's
kernels are high in protein and bulging with starch. Full of nutrition,
this is a great crop of wheat. By contrast, the kernels on the right
from the distressed head are small and shrunken. Drought stricken wheat
is usually very high in protein but the inferior kernels contain little
starch. Not even graded for human consumption, this wheat will be used
for animal feed.